BULLETIN of Ablai Khan KazUIRandWL Series “International Relations and Regional Studies”

THREATS AND RISKS OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IN CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES

Tuleyev M. — 2026-06-30

The study is highly relevant due to the conjugation with the phenomenon of globalisation of regional integration processes. Because of the processes of regional integration and loosening of the state structure of many countries in general and countries of Central Asia in particular, there has also been an increased threat of international terrorism undermining global security. This study aims to analyse the prerequisites for forming international terrorism and extremism in the region. For this, the study deployed several methods, such as the theoretical method, the method of logical analysis, the method of deduction, the method of induction, the dogmatic method, and others. The study revealed that Central Asia's states have a rather crucial geopolitical significance due to the availability of energy resources and geographical location, particularly for participation in international integration projects. But at the same time, the development of countries is hindered by terrorist threats stemming from the large number of internal problems that provoke this phenomenon. It was noted that international terrorism is a serious challenge to the functional development integration. The main prerequisites and directions for the development of terrorist activity were identified, and, importantly, an analysis of the identified factors on the regional security of the Central Asian states was carried out. It was also revealed that at the present stage, there is a prospect of increasing the activity of terrorist, extremist, and separatist groups in the region. To counteract the spread of these phenomena, an integrated approach of a global orientation was proposed, which will provide an opportunity to increase the level of national and international security.

LANGUAGE PLATFORMS AND ENERGY COOPERATION: COMPARATIVE FUNCTIONS OF CONFUCIUS INSTITUTES IN CENTRAL ASIA AND NORTH AFRICA

MA Y. — 2026-06-30

Abstract. First introduced in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has come to encompass a wide range of activities, from large-scale infrastructure projects and expanding trade relations to cultural and educational exchange across Eurasia and Africa. Although these dimensions are well covered in the existing literature, the more routine and practical roles of Confucius Institutes (CIs) - especially where energy cooperation intersects with vocationally oriented language training - remain comparatively underexplored. Drawing on a qualitative comparative design, this study examines the distribution and everyday operation of Confucius Institutes in Central Asia and North Africa using institutional materials, official trade statistics, and recent academic work.

Rather than following trade volumes in any straightforward way, the presence and orientation of Confucius Institutes appear to be shaped by a combination of host-country policy priorities, labour-market needs, and the sectoral profile of ongoing energy and infrastructure projects. In Central Asia, CIs are commonly embedded in pragmatic language training linked to employment in oil, gas, and transport-related fields. In North Africa, Confucius Institutes are frequently involved in cultural programming and business-oriented events. Much of this activity takes place alongside language teaching and includes public lectures, exchanges, and occasional discussion of sustainability-related topics.

The comparison points to differences in how similar institutional arrangements are taken up in different regional contexts. In some settings, Confucius Institutes are closely connected to local development needs and routine forms of cooperation, while in others they remain more loosely associated with cultural exchange activities.

Key words: Confucius Institutes; Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); Central Asia; North Africa; language education; energy projects; regional comparison; vocational training

THE ROLE OF THE CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR IN THE DIVERSIFICATION OF CENTRAL ASIA’S MARITIME ACCESS

Aidarazhy Zh — 2026-06-30

This study aims to examine whether China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), can enhance Central Asian countries’ trade opportunities and provide Central Asian countries with alternative routes to the Indian Ocean. The research compares three different southbound transportation options, including the Western Caspian route through Iran, the Trans-Afghan corridor, and the CPEC route through its northern expansion via Xinjiang. The objective of the research is to examine each of these corridors for trade between Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan based upon their transport design feasibility, risks, and strategic value. The study employs a structured comparative analysis of each corridor's infrastructure quality and connectivity, exposure to geopolitical risk, investment models, and vulnerability to disruptions; in addition, trade compatibility is assessed for economic effectiveness among the shortlisted countries. While the Western Caspian Corridor is fairly developed, it is also subject to significant sanction-related risks; the Trans-Afghan Corridor is associated with significant challenges regarding continuity and stability; and lastly, despite congestion constraints, the CPEC Alignment has more opportunities for integrated multimodal connectivity than the others. The analysis indicates that CPEC continues developing a much broader function than just a direct linear transit corridor into being a true multi-vector connectivity platform for increased strategic flexibility and decreased vulnerability on account of geopolitical disruption. The contribution to the field of research regarding developing corridors in Eurasia is positioning CPEC toward a more strategically connected transportation system while diminishing its focus from that of a bilateral infrastructure project to that of a connectivity system. For Central Asian states seeking diversified resilient maritime access routes, this research provides valuable guidance.

THE PARADOX OF INVESTMENT WITHOUT ATTRACTION: CHINA’S SOFT POWER CHALLENGES IN CENTRAL ASIA

Utkelbay R. — 2026-06-30

This study examines the paradox of Chinese soft power in Central Asia, where massive Belt and Road Initiative investments correlate with declining rather than increasing influence. Through a systematic literature review of 20 scholarly works published between 2019 and 2025, the research synthesizes empirical evidence on economic engagement, cultural initiatives, public opinion trends, and implementation challenges across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Despite $54.8 billion in Chinese investment and extensive cultural diplomacy, including 13 Confucius Institutes, public favorability toward China declined significantly in Kazakhstan (44% to 33%, 2017-2021) and Kyrgyzstan (41% to 31%), while 98 anti-Chinese protests occurred between 2018 and 2020. The analysis reveals that state-directed soft power approaches undermine authenticity, implementation failures damage credibility, Xinjiang policies generate co-ethnic solidarity opposition in border states, and visible Chinese labor presence triggers resentment despite economic benefits. Employing Joseph Nye's soft power theory and realist balance of power theory, the study demonstrates that Central Asian states engage in soft balancing-accepting economic cooperation while enacting legislative restrictions on Chinese activities to preserve autonomy. Geographic variation proves systematic: border states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) exhibit sustained resistance due to historical territorial disputes and co-ethnic populations in Xinjiang, while non-border states show greater tolerance. The findings challenge assumptions about economic interdependence translating into political influence, revealing structural limitations on authoritarian soft power projection. The research contributes theoretical insights into asymmetric influence relationships and documents Central Asian agency in navigating great power competition through multivectoral balancing strategies that extract resources while constraining dominance.

Funding: This research work was funded by the Science Committee of the
Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan within
the framework of the project AP26100745 “Soft power” as a tool for implementing
the foreign policy of the leading centers of the world (USA, Russia, EU, China,
Iran and Turkey) in the countries of Central Asia.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-CULTURAL ASPECTS OF TOURISM IN CENTRAL ASIA

Kabdolda A. — 2026-06-30

This article analyzes the sociocultural aspects of tourism in Central Asia from a regional studies perspective. The relevance of this study stems from the growing importance of tourism in the region not only as an economic sector but also as a factor facilitating humanitarian interaction, symbolic rapprochement between countries, and the formation of a common sociocultural space. In the context of the revival of interstate cooperation and the search for new models of regional integration, tourism is becoming an important mechanism for recognizing the cultural heritage, historical memory, and shared images of the region. However, the sociocultural dimension of tourism in Central Asia and its significance for regional studies remain insufficiently systematized.

The theoretical basis of this study is J. Urry and J. Larsen’s concept of «tourist gaze», N. Salazar’s approach to «tourism imaginaries», G. Richards’s interpretation of cultural tourism, as well as the views of D. Timothy and G. Nyaupane, who view cultural heritage as a socially and institutionally shaped category.

The purpose of this article is to analyze the sociocultural aspects of tourism in Central Asia and determine their role in regional interaction and cultural and humanitarian integration. It also analyzes institutional mechanisms for cooperation and practices for presenting and promoting cultural heritage. Attention is also paid to factors that contribute to the perception of Central Asia as an interconnected cultural and historical space.

The research results demonstrate that tourism in Central Asia is not simply a service sector, but a sociocultural phenomenon that shapes a common understanding of the region. The development of cross-border routes, cultural clusters associated with the historic Silk Road, the strengthening of transport and logistics links, and enhanced institutional interaction contribute to the perception of Central Asia as a unified space. Tourism strengthens cultural ties, embodies shared heritage, and creates the preconditions for regional rapprochement.

The theoretical significance of this article lies in its expanded possibilities for analyzing tourism from a sociocultural perspective within the framework of regional studies. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying its results in the development of cross-border routes, the evaluation of tourism initiatives, and the improvement of mechanisms for popularizing the cultural heritage of Central Asian countries.

GREEN TECHNOLOGIES AND THEIR HIDDEN COSTS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS (USING THE EXAMPLE OF FRANCE, GERMANY, POLAND, CHINA AND THE USA)

Baizakova A.A. — 2026-06-30

The article examines green technologies as a key tool for modern climate policy and energy transformation, which are primarily perceived in public and political discourse as an environmentally sound solution. At the same time, their active implementation reveals contradictions related to the life cycle and the formation of hidden environmental and social costs.

The purpose of the study is to identify the hidden environmental consequences accompanying the production, operation and disposal of green technologies. The paper analyzes the evolution of international climate regulation from the Kyoto Protocol to the Paris Agreement, and compares national practices for implementing green technologies using the examples of France, Germany, Poland, China, and the United States.

The scientific and practical significance of the study is to expand the critical view of the green transition. It is shown that with insufficient development of recycling systems and a circular economy, green technologies can create new environmental risks and social problems.

The methodological basis consists of a systematic approach, comparative, statistical and discursive analysis. As a result, it has been established that the modern model of green transition is accompanied by a low level of waste recycling and the spread of "greenwashing" practices.

The value of the study lies in substantiating the need to review the sustainability criteria for green technologies, taking into account their full life cycle.

TRANSFORMATION OF RUSSIA’S ROLE IN CENTRAL ASIA IN A MULTIPOLAR CONTEXT: GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOECONOMIC SCENARIOS AFTER 2022

Yurlova D.A. — 2026-06-30

Amid the transformation of the modern international system
and the strengthening of multipolar trends, an analysis of changing geopolitical
positions of states in strategically important regions is particularly relevant. In
this context, Central Asia is a key area where the interests of leading global actors
intersect. This study aims to identify the changing nature of Russia’s role in the
region after 2022.
The aim of the study is to comprehensively assess the transformation of
Russian policy in Central Asia and identify key areas and ideas for its further
development in the face of increasing competition from other external players.
The scientific significance of the study lies in its systematization of current
trends in the development of international relations in Central Asia, while its
practical significance lies in the potential use of the obtained results for developing
foreign policy strategies. The methodological basis of the study is theoretical
concepts of international relations, as well as comparative and historical analysis.
The study found that, under current conditions, Russia’s economic influence
is declining relative to China’s, while the European Union and the United States
maintain a limited presence.
The results of the analysis suggest the emergence of a new model of regional interaction, in which Russia retains a significant role in ensuring security
but faces increasing competition in the economic sphere. The study’s value lies
in clarifying the nature of these changes and forecasting possible development
scenarios, including adaptive leadership and equal competition. The practical
significance of this work lies in the potential application of its findings in
developing strategies for foreign policy and economic interaction in Central Asia.

INTEGRATION BARRIERS BETWEEN CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES

Baizakova K.I. — 2026-06-30

Abstract. The article is devoted to an analysis of integration barriers
among the countries of Central Asia in the contemporary period (2016–2025).
The relevance of the study is обусловлена by the fact that during the period
under consideration, the region has experienced a notable intensification of
interstate interaction, accompanied by the expansion of consultative formats, joint
initiatives, and infrastructure projects. Despite this, integration remains limited in
scope and has not evolved into stable and binding mechanisms of cooperation.
The aim of the article is to identify the causes of the limited nature of
integration processes in Central Asia through an analysis of political, institutional,
and practical factors. The theoretical and methodological framework of the
study is based on neorealist and institutional approaches, which make it possible
to explain why the states of the region seek to preserve autonomy and avoid
delegating authority to supranational structures. The research employs methods
of retrospective analysis, content analysis of official documents, and case study
methodology focused on the water, border, energy, and transport sectors.
The findings demonstrate that the constraints on integration are systemic in
nature and are reproduced at all levels of regional interaction. In the water sector,
they manifest through asymmetry of interests and weak enforceability of decisions;
in the border sphere, through the prioritization of bilateral settlement; and in
energy and transport, through the predominance of a project-based approach. The
limited nature of integration in Central Asia is the result of a deliberate choice
by the states. It is not merely a matter of insufficient institutional development or
the temporary incompleteness of regional processes, but rather reflects a model
of interaction that corresponds to the fundamental interests of the participants
themselves.

Funding: This article was prepared as part of the financing of the Committee
of Science of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of
Kazakhstan of the scientific project AP26100515 “Risk management strategies
and strengthening Kazakhstan’s foreign policy in the context of geopolitical
challenges and regional instability”.

THE POTENTIAL AND PRACTICE OF CONTEMPORARY PARADIPLOMACY IN THE PAVLODAR AND OMSK REGIONS

Makashev Zh. — 2026-06-30

Paradiplomacy, as a form of foreign policy practice carried out by
subnational actors amid contemporary geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges,
has become a notable phenomenon in international relations. As participants in
international cooperation, subnational actors develop their activities within the
framework of national legislation. This article analyzes the paradiplomacy of
the Omsk and Pavlodar regions, which complements the policies of the central
governments of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. The
mechanisms for promoting international cooperation and the experience of
interaction between the two regions in the economic sphere are examined. The
theoretical framework is based on the interpretations of paradiplomacy developed
by leading scholars such as I. Duchacek, P. Soldatos, S. Paquin, and others.
Quantitative and qualitative methods, as well as content analysis, were employed.
The study draws on documents from the State Archive of the Pavlodar Region,
monographs and scholarly articles on paradiplomacy, and periodical publications.
The article highlights the active role of local governments in advancing
paradiplomacy through mutual visits, consultations, and the organization of
meetings between the business communities of the two regions, which possess
comparable levels of industrial development. Their paradiplomatic potential and
the internal challenges they face are also explored. The study demonstrates that the
two regions, being integrated into the state strategies of their respective countries,
play an important role in promoting paradiplomacy through coordinated actions.
The recommendations proposed are aimed at improving the paradiplomatic
activities of both regions, including the intensification of industrial cooperation.

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF MIGRATION POLICY: THEORY AND CONCEPTS

Iztaeva V. — 2026-06-30

This article examines the theoretical and methodological
foundations of the digital transformation of migration policy. The relevance of this
work is determined by the acceleration of digitalization of public administration
and changes in the mechanisms for regulating migration flows in the context of the
global information environment. The purpose of the study is to comprehensively
analyze the key theoretical approaches explaining the transformation of migration
policy under the influence of digital technologies. The methodological basis
consists of systemic, institutional, comparative, and discursive approaches. The
paper considers the concepts of the digital state, e-governance, securitization,
network society, Big Data, and algorithmic governance, as well as the classical
paradigms of international relations — realism and constructivism. It is established
that the digital transformation of migration policy is a multidimensional process
affecting the institutional structure of the state, decision-making technologies, and
forms of interaction between the state and society. It is shown that digitalization
enhances the manageability of migration processes, increases the effectiveness of
administrative procedures, and simultaneously transforms security mechanisms.
A conclusion is drawn regarding the need to integrate various theoretical
approaches to form a holistic understanding of the digitalization of migration
management. The study contributes to the interdisciplinary understanding of how
contemporary states reshape migration governance through the lens of digital
technologies, offering a synthesized theoretical framework applicable to both
academic research and policy analysis

INTEGRATION OF ETHNIC REPATRIATES (KANDAS) IN KAZAKHSTAN (BASED ON THE RESULTS OF A SOCIO-ANTHROPOLOGICAL STUDY)

Shakeyeva B.R. — 2026-06-30

This article examines the integration process of ethnic repatriates (kandas) into Kazakhstani society through the lens of social recognition and identity formation. The study aims to analyze the specific features of the social adaptation of ethnic repatriates following their relocation to their historical homeland and to identify the impact of recognition by the host society on integration processes. Although Kazakhstan’s state policy aimed at the reception and support of kandas includes long-term institutional support mechanisms, legal status provision measures, and a system of social benefits, the findings of this study indicate that formal integration mechanisms do not always ensure the full inclusion of ethnic repatriates into the social environment.

The study is based on materials obtained through a qualitative socio-anthropological investigation conducted across various regions of Kazakhstan between 2023 and 2025. The empirical basis consists of more than thirty narrative-biographical interviews conducted with kandas residing in the city of Esik (Almaty Region), the village of Shygys (East Kazakhstan Region), and the town of Sergeevka (North Kazakhstan Region). The analysis focused on respondents’ migration experiences, processes of social adaptation, patterns of everyday communicative interaction, and subjective perceptions of recognition by the host society.

The theoretical and methodological framework of the study is grounded in Axel Honneth’s theory of recognition. This approach makes it possible to conceptualize integration as a multidimensional social process extending beyond legal status to encompass emotional acceptance, social valuation, and the development of a sense of social belonging. The findings reveal the persistence of a substantial gap between institutional integration and everyday social recognition, a condition that may reinforce the risks of social isolation among ethnic repatriates. The article concludes that the successful integration of ethnic repatriates requires not only the improvement of institutional support mechanisms but also the creation of a dialogical social space grounded in social recognition and the acceptance of kandas as full and equal members of society.

Funding: This research article was prepared within the framework of
Program BR31714927, “Multidimensional Identity and Public Consensus in the
Societal Context of Kazakhstan’s Dynamics: Exploring Models of Civic Unity under
Hybrid Challenges,” implemented to support the funding of research organizations
conducting fundamental scientific research for 2026–2028 by the Ministry of Science
and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan

JAPAN’S ROLE IN THE QUAD: FROM INITIATOR TO ARCHITECT

Abizova M.I. — 2026-06-30

The article analyzes Japan’s role in the creation and evolution of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) since 2004. Amid the intensification of U.S.–China rivalry, the QUAD has become one of the central minilateral formats in the Indo-Pacific region. In most existing studies, Japan is considered merely as one of the four participants in the grouping, while a systematic analysis of Japan’s strategic leadership throughout all phases of the format’s evolution remains incomplete.

The aim of the study is to reconstruct Japan’s role in each of the three phases of the QUAD’s development (1.0, 2.0, 3.0) and to substantiate the characterization of Japan as a strategic architect of the regional order.

The scientific significance of the study lies in clarifying the understanding of the capacities of middle powers in shaping regional security institutions. Its practical significance is related to the applicability of the findings to the analysis of Indo-Pacific strategies pursued by great and middle powers, as well as to forecasting the development of minilateral formats.

The methodological framework of the study includes case study analysis, the historical-genetic method and periodization, process tracing, comparative analysis, and content analysis of primary sources.

The main findings show that Japan has consistently performed qualitatively different yet interrelated functions within the QUAD: that of a conceptual initiator (2004-2008), a strategic architect using the instrument of “tactical hedging” (2012-2020), and a co-institutionalizer of an expanded non-military agenda (since 2021).

The value of the study lies in its synthesis of theoretical frameworks – realism and constructivism – as well as in its analysis of recent English-, Russian-, and Chinese-language publications.

The practical relevance of the study’s findings is determined by their potential use in preparing analytical and educational materials on security issues in the Indo-Pacific region and on the strategies of middle powers.

RECALIBRATION IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH: AN ANALYSIS OF U.S. POLICY TOWARD LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATIONS

Keron Dave Ganpat — 2026-06-30

This paper examines the strategic recalibration of United States foreign policy toward Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) during the two terms of the Trump administration (2016-2024, 2025-present). Couched within the theoretical frameworks of realism, neoclassical realism, constructivism and dependency theory, each offering very different lenses for understanding power, state behavior, and global inequality, the study discusses the “America First” doctrine which is a political ideology and policy framework that prioritizes the domestic economy, national sovereignty and security of the Unites States above global treaties, foreign aid and international interventions. It argues that “America first” strongly represents a radical shift toward unilateralism, coercive diplomacy, and transactional engagement. This undoubtedly has been responsible for reshaping hemispheric relations through sanctions, migration restrictions, and security‑driven partnerships. Using a content analysis approach, this qualitative research draws on policy documents, regional responses, and geopolitical trends. It explores how domestic political narratives - particularly populism and nationalism - intersect with traditional realist imperatives to reinforce U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere. It further assesses how these policies deepened structural asymmetries, constrained regional autonomy, and influenced the strategic behavior of Caribbean and Latin American states. The article contributes to existing debates on U.S. hemispheric strategy and hegemonic designs by demonstrating how identity politics, economic leverage, and security concerns have been converging to redefine inter‑American relations during this period. The analysis presented in this study demonstrates that the Trump administration’s foreign policy toward Latin America and the Caribbean is shaped by a hybrid configuration of strategic imperatives, domestic political narratives, structural asymmetries, and ideational framing.

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF THE CONCEPT OF THE WATER FACTOR AND ITS IMPORTANCE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Akhan G.Т. — 2026-06-30

This article presents the role of water factor in international
relations within the framework of competitive paradigms, as well as the
application of realistic, liberal, constructive, and hybrid approaches to research.
This theoretical diversity reflects the multifaceted nature of water as a strategic
resource, and a subject of institutional partnership. Water is defined in terms such
as hydropolitics (water geopolitics), water diplomacy (bilateral or multilateral
negotiations on water issues), and water security (related to resource management
and state security issues). New concepts, such as “virtual water”, the “indirect
exchange” of water resources through international trade expand established
traditional understandings and reshape water diplomacy to stabilize trade flows
in transboundary resource management. The field of study has evolved from
the contentious issues arising from the water wars of the 1990s to a modern
civilization where water is seen as a tool for cooperation rather than conflict. In
international relations, the significance of water is not uniform but systematically
contextual. At the global level, water is not considered more important to great
powers than traditional security concerns, and some argue that “water is unlikely
to be a cause of confrontation between great powers.” However, at the regional
level, for small and medium-sized powers, especially those located in arid regions,
water is a critical factor influencing national security, economic development, and
the sustainability of the state. Contextual factors determining the role of water
include hydroclimatic conditions (water scarcity, variability), socioeconomic
factors (population density, level of development), political factors (regime
type, institutional capacity), and geographic factors (characteristics of coastal
watersheds). Based on the presented data, different theoretical frameworks
define different aspects of water resource dynamics: realism explains an order
in which strategic value and power asymmetries prevail, liberalism emphasizes
the effectiveness of institutions and models of cooperation, and constructivism
presents the water resource problem in terms of its social nature and development
concepts

INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE IN THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN MILITARY ACTIVITIES

Mustafina A.T. — 2026-06-30

The article examines the development of artificial intelligence
(AI) and provides a comprehensive analysis of international experience in
its application in the military sphere. It explores the main directions of AI
implementation in weapons and military equipment, as well as in the practices
of the armed forces of leading foreign countries. Particular attention is given
to the role of AI in intelligence and command systems, unmanned platforms,
cybersecurity, logistics support, and combat decision-making processes.
In recent decades, artificial intelligence has become an integral part of
modern warfare, significantly transforming the nature of military operations.
The likely character of future wars and armed conflicts suggests that changes in
the forms and methods of employing armed forces are increasingly determined
by scientific and technological progress. Along with geopolitical factors, the
development of next-generation weapon systems, the improvement of automated
command and control systems, and rapid data processing technologies are
becoming decisive elements.
The experience of technologically advanced countries demonstrates that
AI enables the effective analysis of large volumes of information, early threat
detection, and faster, more accurate operational decision-making. In addition,
AI technologies contribute to reducing risks to military personnel, minimizing
dependence on the human factor, and improving overall operational efficiency.
The article also analyzes mechanisms for integrating AI into military
command systems, the adaptation of armed forces to digital transformation, and
issues related to personnel training. Furthermore, it addresses the prospects of
autonomous systems, data protection, cybersecurity challenges, and compliance
with international legal and ethical standards.
The study concludes that the effective and responsible implementation
of AI technologies is a key factor in strengthening national security, enhancing
military capabilities, and ensuring timely responses to emerging threats.

ACTIVE CYBER DEFENSE AND CONSTITUTIONAL DETERRITORIALIZATION: CONSTRUCTING NORMATIVE EXCEPTIONS IN JAPAN (2022-2025)

Kairolla А. — 2026-06-30

In the context of escalating cyber threats, the protection of
critical infrastructure has acquired particular significance for Indo-Pacific states.
In May 2025, the Japanese Parliament adopted the Active Cyber Defense Act,
for the first time granting the government authority for preventive monitoring
of communications metadata, remote access to attacker infrastructure, and
neutralization of malicious servers abroad. The adoption of the law was preceded
by a five-year cyber espionage campaign by the Chinese group MirrorFace,
which conducted over 200 attacks against the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the
Ministry of Defense, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, and a number
of politicians. The present study examines this law not as a linear expansion of
defense powers, but as a structural rupture in which cyberspace is constructed
as a domain beyond constitutional constraints. The novelty of the research lies
in analyzing the law through the prism of the Copenhagen School securitization
theory and the cyber-securitization concept of Hansen and Nissenbaum. The
article employs methods of discourse analysis, process-tracing, and comparative
analysis of the four pillars of the law. The results demonstrate that the technification
of threat serves as the key mechanism of depoliticization, enabling the removal
of preventive cyber operations from the jurisdiction of Article 9 without formal
constitutional revision, thereby creating a precedent for analogous processes in
other technological domains. The practical significance of the findings lies in
identifying a model of constitutional transformation applicable to the analysis of
emerging security challenges in cyberspace, autonomous weapons systems, and
electromagnetic spectrum operations.

GEOPOLITICS OF KAZAKHSTAN’S OIL: EXPORT ROUTES, RISKS AND ENERGY SECURITY

Zhumakanov А. — 2026-06-30

This article analyzes the relationship between global geopolitical changes and energy security within the framework of the oil policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The authors conduct a comparative analysis of the role of Kazakhstan’s oil in foreign policy, as well as the geopolitical, economic, and strategic characteristics of its main export routes — the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and the Trans-Caspian corridor.

The study applies key theories of international relations, including neorealism, neoliberalism, and geopolitical reductionism. It examines strategies for protecting Kazakhstan’s national interests in the context of oil security, sanctions risks, and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

In addition, the article addresses issues of hydrocarbon resource diversification, the development of flexible export routes, the modernization of oil refining infrastructure, and the strengthening of energy independence.

CHINA’S “BELT AND ROAD” INITIATIVE AS A DRIVER OF TÜRKİYE’S “ASIA ANEW” INITIATIVE IN A MULTIPOLAR CONTEXT

Nurgali A. — 2026-06-30

This article explores the relationship between China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative and Türkiye’s “Asia Anew” Initiative within the context of the evolving multipolar international system. Transformations in the global economic order and the growing prominence of Asia, particularly China, have created new conditions for the reorientation of Türkiye’s foreign policy. The study aims to examine how China’s economic rise and the implementation of BRI projects, including the development of the Middle Corridor, shape Türkiye’s foreign policy strategy and its engagement with Asian countries. The research is based on document analysis, comparative analysis, and statistical data on trade and economic cooperation between Türkiye and China for the period 2000–2024. The findings show that bilateral cooperation has steadily expanded, particularly in trade, infrastructure, and investment. Türkiye’s participation in BRI projects has also reinforced its role as a key transit link between Asia and Europe. At the same time, the analysis highlights persistent structural imbalances, including a trade deficit with China and relatively low levels of investment interaction. The study contributes to the analysis of how global economic initiatives influence the foreign policy strategies of middle powers in a multipolar system. It also advances the study of Türkiye–China relations by combining economic and geopolitical perspectives. The practical relevance of the research lies in its applicability to the analysis of interstate relations and foreign policy approaches. The findings suggest that while cooperation with China creates new opportunities, it also requires careful consideration of existing imbalances and the development of a sustainable long-term strategy.

GENDER FACTORS IN THE LABOR MARKET OF KAZAKHSTAN IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL TRANSFORMATIONS OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Sarykulova L.T. — 2026-06-30

The article is devoted to the analysis of gender factors in the labor market of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of global transformations of international relations, using comparative and institutional approaches. The relevance of the topic is driven by the increasing role of gender equality as an element of the global normative agenda, as well as the growing influence of international institutions on the formation of national employment policy in the context of economic diversification and the country’s integration into the global community.

The authors examine the impact of international standards and practices developed within the frameworks of the United Nations, International Labor Organization, and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development on the transformation of the gender structure of Kazakhstan’s labor market. Based on statistical and comparative analysis, key trends in women’s participation in the national economy are identified, as well as persistent imbalances, including the gender pay gap and sectoral employment segregation.

Particular attention is paid to comparing the Kazakhstani model with international practices. The article identifies the main institutional models of gender policy – Scandinavian, continental European, Anglo-American, East Asian, Singaporean pragmatic, and Chinese state-industrial – and analyzes their key characteristics in terms of achieving gender parity. The analysis reveals that a high level of women’s participation in the economy does not always lead to a reduction in inequality, as evidenced by both European and Asian experiences.

The study reveals institutional and sociocultural constraints hindering the achievement of gender equality in Kazakhstan and substantiates the specificity of the national model, which combines elements of both European and Asian approaches.

FROM KIN-STATE RHETORIC TO IMPLEMENTATION: ASSESSING TURKEY’S NEW TÜRK-SOYLU MIGRATION REGIME

Mukash A.E. — 2026-06-30

This paper focuses on Turkey's 2025 amending Law no. 2527 that retroactively changes the co-ethnic preferential migration regime reserved for foreigners (yabancı) of Turkic origin (Türk soylu). As part of the historical legacy of migration policy and diaspora governance in Turkey, this article examines how the new presidential decree refines eligibility requirements and introduces administrative hurdles including forms of credentialing and professional registration. With cites to literature and specific case studies regarding Turkic diasporas such as Meskhetian Turks (Ahıska Türkleri), Crimean Tatars, and Uyghurs the paper emphasizes that the communities are heterogeneous and confront implementation challenges. It also delves into the politics of kin-state preferential policies, labor market discrimination and inter-state rivalry that shape selective inclusion—most notably, securitization and its implications for Uyghurs in Turkey. Evidence from post-Soviet ethnic return regimes demonstrates the complicated relationship of privileged exclusion. Results suggest that despite formal expansions of co-ethnic protection, the structural bureaucratic and political filters constrain mass access to protections, with uneven results across ethno-political lines and gender. This study synthesizes legal-institutional analysis, comparative case material, and secondary literature on co-ethnic migration regimes. This study adds to our knowledge of the dynamics between kin-state rhetoric and conditional implementation in migration governance.

TRANSNATIONAL FINANCIAL FRAUD IN THE CONTEXT OF DIGITALIZATION: INSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGES OF KAZAKHSTAN AND INTERNATIONAL COUNTERMEASURES

Sarybayev M.S — 2026-06-30

The article examines transnational financial fraud as an institutional security challenge emerging in the context of Kazakhstan’s accelerated digitalization. The study argues that the spread of mobile payments, digital public services, remote identification, platform-based communication, and cross-border financial instruments has changed not only the scale of fraudulent activity, but also its organizational logic. Contemporary fraud schemes increasingly combine social engineering, spoofed communications, foreign hosting, money-mule networks, crypto-asset conversion, and international payment routes. As a result, the effectiveness of counteraction depends less on isolated technical barriers than on the ability of institutions to coordinate in real time. The purpose of the article is to explain why digital financial fraud acquires a transnational character in Kazakhstan and to identify foreign institutional mechanisms that may be adapted to national practice. The study uses qualitative comparative institutional analysis based on policy documents, official reports, and academic literature on cybercrime, fraud victimization, governance capacity, and collaborative regulation. The article develops the concept of a digitalization-capacity gap, understood as the mismatch between the speed of criminal adaptation in digital ecosystems and the speed of institutional prevention, information exchange, urgent intervention, and cross-border cooperation. The results show that Kazakhstan’s key vulnerabilities are temporal, informational, organizational, and jurisdictional. The comparative assessment of Singapore, the European Union, and the United States demonstrates the value of shared responsibility models, threat-intelligence platforms, complaint-based analytics, and rapid-response coordination. The article concludes that Kazakhstan requires an integrated anti-fraud governance architecture linking financial regulators, banks, telecom operators, law-enforcement bodies, digital platforms, and international partners.

WAR IN GAZA AND THE DISCOURSE OF POPULATION TRANSFER

Zhumatay G. — 2026-06-30

The paper explores and analyzes Israel’s war in Gaza and the roots of the discourse of ‘population transfer’ in the Zionist thinking and its current application in Israeli society.
Drawing upon the relevant literature and primary sources and using discourse analysis, the paper examines how the discourse of ‘population transfer’ or ‘ethnic cleansing’ have played a central role in the policy of the Israeli regime towards the Palestinian people since 1948. The study builds on the concept of elimination of the native and the discourse of ‘population transfer’ to get a deeper understanding of the roots of Zionist endeavor to eliminate and erase the indigenous people and society to build a Jewish state in historic Palestine.
The key argument the study puts forth is that the elimination of the native of Palestine has always been central to the Zionist Israeli colonial project and annihilation of the Palestinian society and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians constitute the driving force behind Israel’s current military onslaught in Gaza.
The results of the study have shown that the ongoing Israel’s war in Gaza since October 2023 and its attempts to expel Palestinian population from the area are not accidental; rather, they are the continuation of the conventional Zionist discourse of ethnic cleansing. The specific feature of the current Israeli endeavor to ethnically cleanse Palestinians from Gaza is that this policy is fully supported by the United States and other Western countries.

SOCIO-POLITICAL IMPACTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC ASSIMILATION IN CENTRAL ASIA

Akim M. — 2026-06-30

This article provides a scientific analysis of the political and social consequences of demographic assimilation processes in the Central Asian region. In the context of contemporary globalization, ethno-demographic changes have become one of the key factors directly influencing national identity, social stability, and state policy. Since the countries of Central Asia are characterized by multi-ethnicity as well as historical, cultural, and linguistic diversity, the study of demographic assimilation is of particular relevance. Migration policies of the Soviet period, urbanization, industrialization, and processes of national revival during the years of independence have significantly transformed the ethnic structure of the region’s population.

The main objective of the study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the historical prerequisites of demographic assimilation in Central Asia, its current development features, and its socio-political consequences. The main research directions include identifying the factors of ethno-demographic transformation, analyzing the impact of migration and urbanization, assessing issues of national identity, and examining the effects on interethnic relations. In addition, the article analyzes processes of cultural interaction and social integration under globalization and their impact on the countries of the region.

The scientific significance of the study lies in the comprehensive consideration of the concept of demographic assimilation in relation to the socio-political development of Central Asian countries. The article demonstrates that ethno-demographic changes affect not only population structure but also the system of public administration, language policy, and national security. Its practical significance lies in the applicability of the research findings to the improvement of state programs aimed at strengthening interethnic harmony, developing effective migration policies, and ensuring social stability.

The methodological framework of the study is based on historical-comparative, systemic, and demographic analysis methods. In addition, a comprehensive analysis was conducted using official statistical data from Central Asian countries, academic research, and analytical reports from international organizations. The study comparatively examines the dynamics of ethno-demographic processes in the region and their social consequences.

The main findings of the study show that demographic assimilation in Central Asia is a multifaceted and complex process. Urbanization, labor migration, and cultural globalization influence changes in ethnic structures and contribute to the formation of new social relations. It is also established that the preservation of national language and culture remains one of the priority directions of state policy in the region. In conclusion, it is stated that demographic assimilation, on the one hand, strengthens social integration, while on the other hand, it raises issues of national identity and ethnic balance. The scientific value of the study lies in its comprehensive analysis of ethno-demographic processes in Central Asia in the context of contemporary political and social transformations.

SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN A TIME OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY: AGENDA FOR THE CENTRAL ASIA REGION

Aitzhanova D.A. — 2026-06-30

The authors examine the potential for ensuring security and cooperation among Central Asian (CA) countries, taking into account current threats and challenges. The study's methodological framework is presented, identifying the specific analytical and evaluation methods used. The region's significance in terms of geography, natural resources, transport and logistics, and other aspects is highlighted. Each of the globally significant actors has its own interests in CA and, as a result, undertakes specific actions that are often inconsistent with the development programs of each individual country and the region as a whole. In this regard, this territory of the global economy is experiencing significant negative factors and consequences of the developing situation in relation to the region and its interests, which is also aggravated by the export-oriented type of development of national economies, a shortage of financial resources, an insufficient level of institutionalization, unregulated issues of interference by external actors, and the unresolved nature of many aspects of the political, economic, social, environmental, etc. economic development of the countries of the community. In these challenging circumstances, Central Asian countries continue to need to carefully pursue a foreign policy based on multi-vector and pragmatic principles as the only legitimate and acceptable approach. The authors believe that, based on the above, and taking into account the current realities of the global order (or rather, geopolitical chaos), the entities of this region should rightly focus their resources and potential on internal development, strengthening their economies, and addressing priority cooperation issues, especially collaboration – all while ensuring regional security.

Funding: This article was prepared within the framework of the
Fundamental Research Program of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education
of the Republic of Kazakhstan (IRN No. BR31714763), “Kazakhstan and the
Changing Contours of the Eastern World: Historical Challenges and Prospects.”

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION STRATEGIES IN UZBEKISTAN AND KAZAKHSTAN

Abduali M.A. — 2026-06-30

This article compares renewable-energy transition strategies in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and examines how legacy energy systems, institutional capacity, investment models, and infrastructure readiness shape implementation. The study applies a structured qualitative comparison based on policy documents, official statistics, reports by international organizations, and peer-reviewed research. It identifies two distinct pathways. Uzbekistan follows an accelerated, investment-led model based on public-private partnerships, independent power producers, and large-scale solar and wind deployment. Kazakhstan follows an incremental, legacy-constrained model shaped by coal-fired generation, district heating, energy-intensive industry, and the social costs of structural adjustment. The comparison reveals different implementation gaps: Uzbekistan risks expanding generation faster than its grid, tariff system, off-taker, and domestic technical capacity can adapt, whereas Kazakhstan risks adopting advanced policy instruments without sufficient fossil-fuel displacement. The article argues that installed capacity and policy targets are insufficient indicators of transition progress. More meaningful evaluation requires attention to actual renewable generation, grid integration, fossil-fuel displacement, fiscal sustainability, and distributional effects.

Funding: This research paper was supported by Ministry of Science and
Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan under Grant «AP26103599
Challenges and opportunities for regional cooperation in sustainable water
resources management in Central Asia»