CENTRAL ASIAN STATES IN THE CONDITIONS OF LATEST GEOPOLITICAL TENSION IN THE WORLD: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Abstract

Today, the consequences of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine are significantly reflected in international politics and the world economy. Central Asian states are also feeling the political, social and economic impact of this war.   Even a superficial comparison of the situation and potential of the five countries of the region before Russia's "special operation" against Ukraine in early 2022 and today shows how complicated the problem is. The fact that the conflict has been going on for more than three years and the prospect of a near-term end is unclear proves that it remains a source of concern and risk in the nearest and medium terms. From the point of view of the relevance of the issue under consideration in the article, the task of comparing the recent social and economic situation in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan was set. This analysis shows that although economic and social indicators in the countries of Central Asia are heterogeneous on average the situation in the region has not improved compared to the period before Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine and negative statistics prevail in key sectors of the economy and social life. The article focuses on the Eurasian Economic Union factor, concluding that the burden of sanctions imposed on Russia is being shared among its members.  Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are providing an opportunity to soften the blow to Russia. At the same time, each of the countries in the region is adapting to the new geopolitical and geoeconomic situation and is striving to exploit new opportunities in foreign policy and diplomacy. In addition, we tried to reveal  new risks and opportunities for these states caused by the war in Ukraine. In the conclusion the development of the situation in the region in the short, medium and far perspectives is predicted.