THE NATURE OF INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THIRD STATES: THE KAZAKHSTANI CONTEXT

Abstract

In recent decades, economic sanctions have become a key tool of foreign policy pressure used to achieve strategic goals—altering state behavior, restricting economic capabilities, and deterring global threats. In the current context, particular importance is attached to so-called secondary sanctions, which affect not only target countries but also states maintaining economic relations with them.

Kazakhstan, due to its unique geopolitical position between Russia, China, and Iran, faces specific risks related to the differences in sanction regimes of these countries, as well as the policies of Western states. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of secondary sanctions on Kazakhstan's trade flows and identify measures to mitigate associated risks.

The scientific novelty lies in the comprehensive assessment of sanction pressure on third countries—an area previously studied only fragmentarily. The methodology is based on comparative analysis of foreign trade statistics and secondary data, including the results of surveys among Kazakhstani companies.

Findings indicate that sanctions against Russia have an indirect but noticeable effect on Kazakhstan’s economy: in 2024, 43% of companies reported negative impacts from the geopolitical situation. At the same time, adaptive trends are emerging, such as increased interest in logistics, IT, and import substitution.

The practical significance of the study lies in the development of business recommendations: monitoring sanction regimes, vetting counterparties, investing in legal expertise, and adhering to transparency principles will help avoid exposure to secondary sanctions and maintain Kazakhstan’s external economic resilience.